Food and non-alcoholic drink prices rose at an annual rate of 1.3% in July, down from 1.7% in June, marking the lowest rate since September 2021. Despite this overall slowdown, analysis by AJ Bell has revealed 11 supermarket staples that have increased the most in price since the cost of living crisis began.
Price Changes Across Key Categories
The price of meat, particularly beef and breaded chicken, fell this year but rose last year. Vegetables saw a steeper price decline last month compared to July 2024, while sugar, jam and honey rose less in July than they did a year ago. Fish prices rose this year after falling last year, and bread and cereals became more expensive, having been little changed in the same period last year.
Laura Suter, director of personal finance at AJ Bell, commented on the trends: "Prices for the oil peaked higher than this, thanks to a combination of poor harvests and higher energy costs, before dropping back again."
The 11 Staples With the Biggest Price Increases
AJ Bell examined the products most affected by price increases since the cost of living crisis began. The household items that increased in price most are:
- Olive oil – 116.3%
- Edible offal – 75.8%
- Beef and veal – 61.3%
- Eggs – 56.7%
- Pasta products and couscous – 54.9%
- Chocolate – 51.2%
- Whole milk – 45.8%
- Cheese – 42.2%
- Fast food and takeaway food services – 38.1%
- Bread – 30.2%
- Beer – 23.3%
Broader Inflation Context and Expert Views
ING economist James Smith provided context on the wider inflation picture: "Headline inflation is up three-tenths of a percentage point to 2.9%, on the well-telegraphed rise in household energy bills and also a bigger rise in social rents than this time last year. That was offset by July’s short-lived dip in petrol and diesel prices (spoiler alert: that won’t last into August’s figures)."
Smith added: "None of that was unexpected. What remains much more surprising, however, is just how benign food inflation is right now. Prices here were flat on the month, having fallen in month-on-month terms in the two prior readings, something that is highly unusual."
Smith noted that a quick glance at producer prices suggests consumer food inflation could theoretically even go negative in annual terms over the next few months. He said: "We’re not convinced that will happen – and it was always going to take at least a year for the full effects of the Iran War to show up here. But it should still be welcome news for the Bank of England’s hawks, who point to the influential role of food prices in setting household inflation expectations."
