After a brief respite on Sunday, Birmingham is bracing for a return to scorching temperatures, with the mercury set to hit 30C on Wednesday, July 29. The heat is expected to build from Monday, with Tuesday reaching 27C and Wednesday peaking at 30C between 3pm and 6pm, according to Met Office forecasts.
Heatwave Alert and Threshold
The Met Office has issued a yellow heat alert for the West Midlands, which was in force earlier on Sunday. The UK has experienced a prolonged hot and dry spell in July, which Marco Petagna, senior operational meteorologist at the Met Office, described as very, very unusual. However, Birmingham may not officially qualify as a heatwave, as the region's threshold of 27C must be exceeded for at least three consecutive days. With only two days forecast above that mark, it falls short of the criteria.
Elsewhere in the country, the South East is expected to top its heatwave threshold of 28C from Tuesday through Thursday, with highs exceeding 30C. Monday will see 27C in the South East, just below the threshold.
Drought and Rainfall Statistics
The dry conditions have led to drought declarations. North Wales and the Upper Severn became the first part of the UK to declare drought status on Thursday, July 23. The United Kingdom has received only 20 percent of its average July rainfall, a statistic that takes into account wetter areas. Parts of Exeter, Devon, and Usk in Wales have met their heatwave thresholds for 20 consecutive days. No rain has fallen in July in Bedfordshire, Buckinghamshire, Hertfordshire, and West Sussex, and 16 counties have recorded just 0.1mm, which might just be a bit of dew on the grass, said Mr. Petagna.
Wildfire Incidents
The hot and dry weather has fuelled wildfires across the UK. The worst conditions saw wildfires sweep through the Cairngorms National Park, forcing home evacuations and prompting police in Scotland to declare a major incident. Wildfires continue to burn across the Rhinogydd mountains in North Wales and Blaenavon in South Wales, with the latter affecting 220 hectares. Recent days have also seen blazes on heathland on the Isle of Wight, woodland in the New Forest, and fields in Tadley, Hampshire.
Abroad, massive forest fires have forced the evacuation of 200,000 people in south-western France and central Spain as flames raged out of control. Firefighters in Spain admitted the fires were so fast and violent that they could not be tackled head on.
Outlook for August
Next week's predicted heatwave may not be the last of the summer. The Met Office's long-range forecast suggests the weather will become a bit more changeable in the short term, but as we head more into August, there are hints that conditions will settle down and become drier again, Mr. Petagna said. The dry conditions follow last year's drought summer, and the UK remains on alert for further heatwaves.
