Wales Faces Growing Energy Dependence on England, New Analysis Reveals
A stark new report from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) has issued a serious warning about Wales' energy future. The analysis indicates that Wales is no longer a net exporter of electricity and is at significant risk of becoming increasingly dependent on imported gas and electricity from England. This troubling shift comes as the nation's pipeline for renewable energy projects is described as less developed compared to those in England and Scotland.
Stalled Renewable Growth and Rising Gas Dependence
The research highlights that while renewable generation in Wales has grown nearly eightfold since 2024 and now meets approximately one-third of Welsh electricity demand, this growth has stalled since 2019. Experts note that Wales' renewables planning pipeline, although still substantial, is smaller and less advanced than in neighboring nations. Consequently, Wales has lost its net electricity exporter status, declining from a peak of over 21 terawatt-hours in 2016 to near zero in 2024. Last year marked the first time Wales became a net importer from England.
Furthermore, electricity generation in Wales has fallen by almost 50% from its 2016 peak. This decline occurs because growth in renewable capacity has not kept pace with the reduction in generation from coal and nuclear sources. Alarmingly, gas now accounts for 58% of Welsh generation—a greater share than any other UK nation—leaving Welsh generators and their customers heavily exposed to volatile international fossil fuel markets.
Economic and Security Implications
The report emerges amid a context of soaring gas prices, driven by conflict in the Middle East, which have reached a three-year high. Independent analysts at Cornwall Insight estimate that average household energy bills could rise by nearly £300 when the energy price cap is revised in July. In the UK, gas costs dictate domestic electricity prices about 85% of the time, making British consumers acutely vulnerable to global price shocks. The International Monetary Fund has warned that the UK will be "especially exposed" to fallout from conflicts like the war in Iran due to its dependence on gas-powered generation.
Laura Dunn, senior associate at the ECIU, emphasized the urgency: "The cost-of-living is voters' number one priority heading into the Senedd elections, with growing fears of a repeat of the energy crisis which followed the Russian invasion of Ukraine. In an increasingly uncertain world, the best way to offer Welsh households and industry the long-term certainty they need is by untethering the cost of electricity from unstable international gas markets."
Public Concern and Political Targets
Polling conducted by More in Common on behalf of the ECIU reveals significant public anxiety. Seven in ten Welsh voters (70%) expressed concern about Wales being dependent on energy imported from the United States, and nearly as many (67%) worry about reliance on energy from the rest of the world. The United States has become the UK's largest supplier of liquefied natural gas, providing 68% of imports, raising fears about potential political leverage.
The Welsh Government has set an ambitious target of meeting 100% of its electricity demand from renewable sources by 2035. However, the recent slow progress in scaling up renewables capacity, combined with a forecast that electricity demand will double by 2050, means renewables' share of generation is currently projected to fall. This risks leaving Wales more dependent on gas generation, undermining both energy security and climate goals.
Call for Accelerated Action
The ECIU report stresses that accelerating the deployment of new renewables is essential to displacing gas from the grid and shielding consumers from market volatility—a position supported by organizations like the International Energy Agency and Energy Crisis Commission. Dunn added, "Wales has seen significant progress in rolling out new renewables and, across the UK, renewables are already helping to squeeze gas off the grid. With demand for electricity set to grow as homes and industry electrify, more action is urgently needed to speed up the pace at which new renewables are coming online if the Welsh government is to meet its clean energy targets and prevent Wales becoming more dependent on imported electricity."
This analysis underscores a critical juncture for Wales' energy policy, highlighting the need for swift and decisive action to bolster renewable infrastructure and reduce dependence on imported fossil fuels.
