In a highly irregular move that has sparked political chaos, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has published its official report on Chancellor Rachel Reeves' Autumn Budget ahead of schedule.
What the Leaked Report Reveals
The prematurely released document, published on 26 November 2025, outlines the government's plan to freeze income tax thresholds for an additional three years, starting from the 2028-29 tax year. This policy is a direct reversal of Chancellor Reeves' own statement from the previous year, where she declared such a move would "hurt working people".
The OBR report specifies that this measure, alongside a freeze on employer National Insurance contributions thresholds, is a key part of a package of personal tax changes designed to raise £14.9 billion by the 2029-30 financial year. The threshold freeze alone is projected to generate £8.0 billion for the Treasury.
Consequences for Taxpayers and Pensioners
This decision will have significant consequences for millions. As wages increase over the frozen threshold period, more individuals will be pulled into higher tax brackets, resulting in them paying more income tax than they otherwise would have.
The change is particularly alarming for pensioners. Analysis from pension consultants LCP indicates that an extra half a million state pensioners could be forced to pay income tax due to this extension, even after accounting for the state pension age rising to 67.
Steve Webb, a partner at LCP, provided a stark warning: "If the Chancellor decides to freeze thresholds for another two years, we will see at least half a million more pensioners dragged into the tax net as a minimum, taking the total to around 9.3m – three quarters of all pensioners."
He further cautioned that if inflation or wage growth accelerates, the number of pensioner taxpayers could surge to around 10 million by 2030. From 2027/28, anyone receiving the full new state pension will have an income above the tax threshold from their state pension alone.
Fallout and Next Steps
The early publication of the OBR's findings is a major breach of standard procedure, which typically sees the report released alongside the Chancellor's formal Budget statement. This has thrown the government's carefully managed Budget rollout into disarray and given the public an unexpected early glimpse into contentious fiscal policy.
The full document is now available online, allowing voters and analysts to scrutinise the plans well before Chancellor Reeves is scheduled to present them to Parliament.
