Exclusive Polling Predicts Reform UK Surge in Local Elections
Exclusive predictive polling shared with Brum Daily indicates a dramatic political shift in the West Midlands, with Reform UK poised to take control of two Black Country councils and become a formidable force in Birmingham. The analysis, conducted by data firm Bombe, suggests a potential Labour wipeout and significant gains for Nigel Farage's party in the upcoming May 2026 local elections.
Shocking Forecasts for Council Control
According to the ward-level polling model, Reform UK is predicted to seize majority control in Sandwell and Walsall, while capturing approximately one-fifth of the seats in Birmingham's local authority. This would mark a stunning reversal in Sandwell, currently a Labour stronghold, and reshape Walsall, which has no overall control. The Greens and Independents are also expected to benefit, but Reform's projected performance is the standout shock.
The model forecasts that many seats will be decided by narrow margins, making voter turnout and local campaigning critical factors. Mike Joslin, co-founder and CEO of Bombe, emphasized that the model updates weekly to reflect evolving data and public sentiment, with an 85% accuracy rate in recent by-elections.
Detailed Predictions Across the Region
The analysis provides specific projections for key councils:
- Birmingham: All 101 seats up for election; predicted to become a hung council with no overall control, as Labour's vote collapses and Reform, Independents, and Greens gain.
- Sandwell: All 72 seats up; Reform predicted to win 52 seats, reducing Labour from 60 to just three.
- Walsall: All 60 seats up; Reform forecast to take 48 seats, with Labour wiped out.
- Coventry: Labour expected to hold but with a reduced majority; Reform and Greens each predicted six seats.
- Dudley: 24 of 72 seats up; predicted split between Reform and Conservatives.
- Solihull: Conservatives likely to retain control, with Reform gaining 10 more seats.
- Wolverhampton: 20 of 60 seats up; expected to result in no overall control, with Reform as biggest winners.
Caveats and Methodology
The predictions come with important caveats. The model does not account for individual candidate recognizability or personality factors, focusing solely on party-level analysis. It assumes each party fields strong candidates in every ward, though smaller parties may lack resources for full slates. However, major parties including Labour, Conservatives, Lib Dems, Greens, and Reform are planning to contest all available wards.
Joslin noted that the Midlands region features some of the most competitive local elections nationally, with fragmented races across multiple parties. He stressed that effective local campaigning and credible candidates could determine outcomes in closely contested wards.
This polling offers a startling preview of potential political realignment in the West Midlands, highlighting Reform UK's rising influence and the challenges facing traditional parties as the 2026 elections approach.
