Fresh weather data has pinpointed the areas of England likely to dodge a festive whiteout as a severe Arctic weather system sweeps towards the UK. New maps from WX Charts, corroborated by Ventusky, indicate a significant downturn in conditions is probable around Christmas Day itself.
Which Counties Will See Snow?
According to the latest modelling, several counties are in line for snowfall as the cold snap takes hold. The regions expected to be hit include Sussex, South Yorkshire, West Yorkshire, Greater Manchester, Lancashire, County Durham, Northumberland, and Cumbria. This suggests a predominantly northern and eastern bias for the Christmas Day precipitation.
The Lucky Areas Missing the White Stuff
However, not all of England will witness the wintry scenes. A long list of counties is currently forecast to escape the brunt of the snow. This group includes Staffordshire, Cheshire, Gloucestershire, the West Midlands, Warwickshire, Herefordshire, and Shropshire.
Further east, Essex, Norfolk, Suffolk, and Lincolnshire are also likely to be spared, along with Leicestershire, Derbyshire, Northamptonshire, Nottinghamshire, and Rutland.
The list continues with Cambridgeshire, Oxfordshire, Bedfordshire, Wiltshire, Hertfordshire, Buckinghamshire, and crucially, Greater London. Completing the roster of areas set for a relatively snow-free Christmas are Surrey, Kent, Devon, Cornwall, Somerset, and Berkshire.
Meteorologists Warn of Tumbling Temperatures
Nick Finnis, a meteorologist with the independent forecaster NetWeather, explained the dynamics behind the chill. He stated that low pressure moving south from Greenland will send temperatures plummeting across the nation.
In a blog post for NetWeather, Finnis detailed the computer model projections. He wrote, "The 00z EC high resolution model, the coldest of the overnight runs, shows -8 to -9C across England and Wales on Christmas Day, which could be cold enough for sleet or snow in a showery easterly flow."
He added that other prominent models, including the 12z GFS and the GEM and ICON models, also suggest air temperatures cold enough for snow across many parts, potentially extending to all UK areas by the close of Christmas Day.
This short-term cold spell arrives within the broader context of a warming climate. The Met Office's outlook for the global average temperature in 2026 suggests it will continue the recent run of years with values above 1.4°C compared to pre-industrial levels. Their central forecast for next year is 1.46°C, which, while high, is lower than the record 1.55°C set in 2024.
