Scientists have warned that a so-called 'Super El Niño' weather phenomenon could push summer temperatures in the United Kingdom above 40 degrees Celsius in 2026, marking the first such occurrence since 2022. The prediction comes as forecasters estimate an 82 percent chance of a very strong El Niño forming this year, based on an average of four weather agencies, including the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service.
What is El Niño?
El Niño refers to a sustained period of warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. It is part of a natural cycle known as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, which alternates between warm El Niño and cool La Niña phases. This year's event is being described as potentially the most severe ever recorded.
Expert Opinions
Mark Maslin, a professor of earth system science at University College London, said, "It's fair to call this a super El Niño." He added that it may be the most severe ever recorded. "Any especially hot weather we have this summer will be just normal climate change. El Niño will really start to bite in the autumn. We could see a return of record-breaking 40°C weather next summer."
Emily Black, a climate scientist at the University of Reading, warned of global impacts: "We could see drought in coffee-growing regions, such as Brazil," and noted that crops of rice, palm oil, and sugar could also be disrupted.
Katharine Hayhoe, a climate scientist at Texas Tech University, described the weather phenomenon as like "pushing the turbo button" on warming caused by burning fossil fuels. "It affects food, it affects the economy, it affects water. Who is not connected these days? We are all connected in ways that we never imagined," she said.
