The Midlands faces the prospect of widespread drought next year unless the region experiences significantly higher than average rainfall this winter, the Environment Agency has warned.
Current Drought Conditions
Yorkshire and the Midlands remain in official drought status following an exceptionally dry spring and summer in 2025, compounded by repeated heatwaves. While the North West shows signs of recovery, large areas of the country continue to experience exceptionally dry conditions.
England has recorded below-average rainfall in eight of the ten months measured this year, with only January and September delivering above-normal precipitation. The period from January to October saw just 83% of typical rainfall, featuring the driest spring in 132 years and the hottest summer on record.
Winter Rainfall Critical for Recovery
Drought status is only lifted when water reserves completely refill, and despite recent rainfall, conditions remain precarious according to Environment Agency officials. The crucial winter period, when water reserves normally replenish before summer, will determine next year's water security.
Helen Wakeham, Environment Agency director of water, stated: "There will be a drought next year, unless we get sustained rainfall through the winter." She emphasised that the severity would depend on both weather patterns and conservation efforts taken during the winter months.
The Met Office predicts substantial rainfall through this Saturday but warns of an increased probability of dry weather across the three-month period from November through January, which could significantly worsen drought conditions.
Potential Scenarios and Impacts
The Environment Agency has outlined three potential scenarios based on winter rainfall levels:
If England experiences typical winter rainfall, most regions would return to normal conditions by March 2026, though areas of Cambridgeshire and Bedfordshire would remain in extended dry weather conditions.
With only 80% of average winter rainfall, every region would face drought or extended dry spells by March 2026 except Greater Manchester, Merseyside, Cheshire, Cumbria and Lancashire.
In the worst-case scenario of just 60% of usual precipitation, the entire country would be in drought by spring 2026, bringing hosepipe restrictions, reduced agricultural irrigation, and risk of permanent environmental damage.
The dry conditions also increase flash flooding risks when rain does arrive, as parched ground cannot absorb heavy downpours, causing water to run off and create flood conditions.
Call to Action and Conservation Measures
Water minister Emma Hardy confirmed the government is working with the National Drought Group and water companies to safeguard supplies, including plans for nine new reservoirs and investment in leakage reduction.
The Environment Agency is urging water companies to continue efforts to reduce consumption and tackle leakage, while encouraging agricultural producers to consider drought-resistant crops and collaborate on water sharing.
Wakeham praised the public's efforts in reducing water use this summer but urged continued conservation: "I would urge people to continue to be as efficient as possible with their water use this winter – even if it is raining outside. Our wildlife, our rivers and our public water supplies depend on it."
