Martin Lewis, founder of MoneySavingExpert.com (MSE), has debunked the common belief that booking a flight early secures the cheapest price. In a clip shared on the MSE ITV This Morning TikTok account, he explained how dynamic pricing has changed the rules and offered advice for travellers.
Dynamic Pricing Changes the Game
The discussion was sparked by a viewer who booked a return business class flight to Bangkok with British Airways in January, paying £4,200 for a December flight. By the time the clip was recorded, the same flights were available for £3,300 — nearly £1,000 cheaper. British Airways attributed this to dynamic pricing and said no adjustment could be made.
Martin said: "There's always this assumption, isn't there, that the earlier you book something, the cheaper it is. That just isn't the case. Five or six years ago I would have said it usually is, but it depends."
Booking Early: Security, Not Savings
He clarified that booking early is about securing a seat and avoiding prohibitive prices, not guaranteed savings. "If you're on a packaged holiday type, then late booking if you've got flexibility has always been the cheapest way. But when it comes to scheduled airlines, booking early is the safest way to book and to assure that you'll get a seat and that prices won't be prohibitive."
He added: "You could have had the opposite. It could have gone up from £3,300 to £12,000 now and it would have been unaffordable. But there's no guarantee it won't get cheaper. It's safer. But you can't look back with hindsight."
The Free Cancellation Solution
Martin pointed to a practical solution: flexible booking with free cancellation. "One of the things I always advise people to do is if you can find a flight that gives you flexible booking with free cancellation — same with booking hotels, same with booking car hire abroad — if it's not prohibitively more expensive, do so," he said.
Dynamic pricing means prices can go up or down after booking. Free cancellation allows travellers to rebook at a lower price if one emerges. Martin shared an example: "I have loads of people say on car hire who bought the car hire early, two weeks before they go, they check the price, find it's half the price because they've got free cancellation. They book the new car hire, cancel the old one, then they save the money."
For the viewer who had already booked without free cancellation, Martin was sympathetic but realistic: "Your ticket was probably cheaper because you didn't get free cancellation. That is dynamic pricing."
Final Advice: Don't Check Again
His final piece of advice for anyone in a similar position was simple: "If you're in that situation, got a flight at the price that you can afford, is don't check again."
Expert Insights
A spokesperson for travel experts Ski Vertigo added: "A lot of travellers book early assuming they are locking in a good deal, but as Martin points out the picture is more complicated than that now. Where possible, always try to book with a cancellation option — it costs a little more upfront but gives you room to manoeuvre if prices drop."
They also noted: "For peak season travel, booking early still makes sense to secure availability. And package holidays are worth comparing before booking independently — if a flight gets cancelled or something goes wrong, the protection that comes with a package can make a real difference."
