Massive toll of ultra-processed foods on heart health
Ultra-processed foods (UPFs) could be responsible for tens of thousands of heart attacks and strokes each year, according to new research that highlights the profound impact of modern dietary habits on long-term health. The study, published in the American Journal of Preventive Medicine and presented at the International Congress on Obesity in Mexico, analyzed Canadian patient data and estimated that between 23% and 38% of cardiovascular disease cases—including heart attacks and strokes—may be linked to UPF consumption. In 2019 alone, this translated to between 58,200 and 96,000 new cases of cardiovascular disease, including 10,600 to 17,400 deaths and thousands of additional cases leading to long-term disability.
The potential of dietary changes
The research team also modeled the benefits of reducing UPF intake. Cutting consumption by 20% to 50% could have prevented between 16,800 and 45,900 new cardiovascular disease cases and 3,100 to 8,300 related deaths. This underscores the power of even modest dietary adjustments. Ultra-processed foods include processed meats, biscuits, sugary cereals, mass-produced bread, ice cream, ready meals, and soft drinks—items often high in fat, salt, and sugar, with additives like preservatives, emulsifiers, and artificial flavorings.
In the UK, UPFs account for more than half of the average person's daily calorie intake, rising to around 68% among teenagers—significantly higher than in countries such as France and Italy. The researchers called for stronger public health measures, stating: “These findings reinforce the need for clinical and public health interventions aimed at reducing UPF intake as a key component of cardiovascular disease prevention. To drive meaningful change in dietary patterns, comprehensive structural measures are essential. These include regulations on food taxes, front-of-package labelling, marketing restrictions and reformulation targets aimed at improving food quality.”
Expert caution on interpretation
However, not all experts agree on the strength of the conclusions. Professor Alberto Fiore from Abertay University in Dundee noted: “This is a modelling study, not a clinical trial—it does not measure what actually happened to people who ate more or fewer ultra-processed foods. It takes a 2015 dietary snapshot, applies a risk multiplier borrowed from studies in France, Italy and the US, and projects how many CVD events might be attributable to UPF consumption.” He highlighted that the authors' own sensitivity analysis reduced the headline figure of 96,000 avoidable cases by nearly 40% depending on the risk estimate used, indicating a wide uncertainty range.
Professor Fiore added: “The deeper problem is one this study cannot resolve—are we actually measuring the effect of industrial processing, or are we simply measuring the well-known harms of a poor diet that happens to come in a packet? The paper itself tells us the answer. It acknowledges that 'ultra-processed dietary patterns' are characterised by excess free sugars, saturated fats, and sodium, and low fibre—and it separately estimates that targeting free sugars and sodium alone could prevent thousands of CVD deaths per year in Canada. If standard nutritional harms already explain the observed risk, then the concept of 'ultra-processing' is doing no independent scientific work whatsoever.” He pointed out that when broken down by food type, the risks were overwhelmingly driven by sugar-sweetened beverages and processed meat products, both already known to be harmful due to their nutritional content.
Call for broader changes
Campaigners argue the findings still underscore the need for systemic changes. Maeva May from the Stroke Association commented: “Stroke is a leading cause of death and disability, and this research is an important reminder that the food environment around us can influence people's risk. It adds to growing evidence that diets high in ultra-processed foods may increase the risk of cardiovascular disease, including stroke. We still need to understand more about the role of processing itself, but we already know that too much salt, sugar and saturated fat can raise blood pressure and other major risk factors for stroke. People should not be blamed for choices shaped by price, availability and relentless marketing. Government and industry must do more to make healthier food affordable, accessible and easier to choose, so fewer people and families have to live with the impact of stroke.”
The debate continues, but the study adds to mounting evidence that reducing UPF intake could have substantial public health benefits, while experts call for cautious interpretation of modelling-based findings.
