The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) has published analysis suggesting the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) stop Personal Independence Payments (PIP) for all claimants under 30, except those with severe disabilities. The proposal forms part of new research funded by the Nuffield Foundation and released as part of the IFS Green Budget.
According to the IFS, ending PIP for all under-30s would save £5.5 billion a year. However, the think tank acknowledged that many of those affected have severe disabilities. There are currently 689,000 PIP claimants under 30, representing 20% of the working-age caseload. Approximately half of these—344,000 people—qualify for the highest possible award, compared with only 34% of claimants over 30.
Potential savings from a narrower reform
The IFS said that allowing young people with the highest possible awards, and therefore the most severe conditions, to keep PIP would reduce the saving to at most £2.2 billion a year. This more targeted approach would focus support on those with the greatest needs while still delivering significant reductions in spending.
The analysis comes as the Labour Party government asked the Timms Review to investigate options for reforming PIP in response to big increases in claimant numbers and spending. The IFS research is intended to inform the upcoming Timms Review and the upcoming Budget.
Rising claimant numbers and spending
The share of 16- to 64-year-olds claiming PIP has risen from 5.5 per cent in 2019 to 8.2 per cent in 2025. Spending on PIP has increased from £14 billion in 2019–20 to £25 billion in 2025–26 (in today’s prices), and official forecasts suggest it will increase further to £34 billion in 2030–31.
The IFS stated: "We set out a range of potential options for reforming PIP with a view to informing the upcoming Timms Review and the upcoming Budget." The organisation added: "We explore reforms that either reduce spending or maintain spending at current levels, in line with the remit of the Timms Review."
Reform options and potential use of savings
The IFS also noted that savings from reforms that reduced the number of claimants could be used to raise per-claimant awards or increase spending on other forms of support. This suggests the government could redirect funds towards employment support and training opportunities for younger claimants, as the IFS suggested the government may want to restrict access to PIP if it thinks younger people might be better helped by such measures.
The analysis highlights the trade-offs involved in reforming PIP, balancing the need to control spending with the importance of supporting those with the most severe disabilities. The final decisions will rest with the Timms Review and the government as it prepares the upcoming Budget.
