The full state pension could rise to £13,149 a year under new calculations, after Prime Minister Andy Burnham confirmed the Government will stick with the Triple Lock. Chancellor John Healey is set to confirm next year's state pension increase at the October 28 Budget, with experts modelling a 4.8% annual rise similar to this year's increase.
Pension Increase Projections for 2027
According to this model, the full pension would rise to £252.88 a week or £13,149.88 a year. This projection is based on the rate rising by 4.8% each year, as it did from April. The Triple Lock guarantees the state pension increases by the highest of wage growth, inflation, or 2.5%.
Earlier this year, YouGov conducted a survey asking respondents whether they would support or oppose changing the Triple Lock. The findings reveal that only one in four (26%) would be in favour of altering it, while 37% are opposed to making changes, and 36% answered “don’t know”.
Public Opinion on Pension Lock Variations
YouGov also tested public willingness to reduce the number of 'locks' – switching to a double lock, where pensions would increase by two of the three existing measures, or a single lock, where pensions would increase by just one of the measures. The public are split on reducing the Triple Lock to a double lock, with support varying depending on which measures are retained.
- A pension policy tied to earnings or inflation is supported by 33% but opposed by 30%.
- One connected to earnings or 2.5% is backed by 29% and rejected by 34%.
- The version linked to inflation or 2.5% is endorsed by 35% but disapproved of by 30%.
YouGov additionally tested a more generous option, which would see pensions increase by at least 5% yearly, rather than the current 2.5%.
Long-Term Impact of Annual Increases
A spokesperson for Predictionist highlighted the compounding effect of these rises: "The important point is that small annual increases become much bigger over time. A 4.8% rise may not sound dramatic in one year, but if it were repeated for a decade it would push the full new state pension above £20,000 a year."
This comes as the Government also faces pressure on other fronts, with Andy Burnham having a £37 plan for roads in England from January 2027, as previously reported.
