The Labour Party government and the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) have received their clearest warning yet that it is time to scrap the Triple Lock. Sir Tony Blair's thinktank, the Tony Blair Institute (TBI), has called on the DWP to abandon the manifesto pledge for all state pensioners.
The TBI stated that the “unaffordable” commitment to maintain the Triple Lock should be eliminated. The Triple Lock ensures that the basic and new state pensions rise every April by whichever is highest: inflation, average wage growth, or 2.5%. However, the thinktank argues that scrapping it is “unavoidable” as it becomes increasingly unaffordable.
The TBI highlighted that Britain’s ageing population necessitates urgent changes to the pensions system. The institute cited an expected increase from 12.6 million pensioners currently to nearly 19 million by 2070. This would raise total state spending on pensions from 5% of gross domestic product (GDP) to 7.8%, equating to an additional £85 billion per year in today’s money.
“That would mean higher taxes, deeper pressure on other public services, or both,” the thinktank warned. Despite these concerns, Labour Party Chancellor Rachel Reeves has reaffirmed her commitment to the Triple Lock. “We made a commitment in our manifesto to the triple lock and we’re not changing that,” she said.
Thomas Smith, director of economic policy at the TBI, commented: “Britain’s state pension system was built for a different era. We can’t keep pouring money into a system that is increasingly unaffordable.” He added: “Pension spending must be contained, and that means the triple lock cannot continue after the next election. Ending it will require political leadership from all parties – but that should only be the first step. Real reform must also build a better system: one that is fairer, more flexible, and designed for how people live today.”
