Birmingham City's return to the Championship after a brief League One stint has not met the high expectations of many supporters and pundits. Pre-season optimism was fueled by bookmakers predicting at least a play-off finish for Chris Davies' side following their record-breaking League One title win, but football is unpredictable. Some analysts even tipped the Blues for automatic promotion.
Currently, Birmingham sit 10th in the Championship, but several key statistics indicate they are underperforming. While 10th is a respectable top-half position, the Blues are 10 points adrift of Wrexham in the final play-off spot, a team they finished above last season. Positive data cannot mask the frustrations of fans, but as a data-driven club, these stats likely influence the hierarchy's summer decisions.
The stats reveal that Birmingham are a better team than results suggest. With the play-offs expanding next season, minor improvements could secure a spot and a chance at the Premier League.
Expected Goals Underperformance in Both Boxes
Over the season, the Blues have accumulated 59.8 expected goals (xG) but have scored only 54. Defensively, they have conceded 54 goals while xG indicates they should have allowed just 46.8, the fourth-lowest xG against in the division. In the Expected Points table, Birmingham rank sixth with 69 points, nine more than their actual tally.
Individual errors have plagued the defense, with five errors directly leading to goals and 15 resulting in at least a shot. Goalkeeper James Beadle's save percentage of 69.5% is average, but his youth and inexperience are factors. The England U21 hero from last summer is still developing, occasionally showing his inexperience while also producing crucial saves. Davies' system attempts to shield Beadle, but the style is demanding for a young keeper.
Too Many Big Chances Missed
Birmingham have consistently created good positions, as evidenced by xG and the number of big chances created. Data experts suggest top strikers should match their xG, indicating consistent finishing. A good finisher may outperform xG, but goals can dry up if they don't get into good positions.
Kyogo Furuhashi's struggles have been most pronounced, scoring one goal in over 1000 minutes from an xG of 5.35. He has missed 12 big chances this season, averaging a miss every 83 minutes. However, the data suggests that if he gets another chance next season, goals may come because he knows how to find goal-scoring positions.
All strikers miss big chances. Zan Vipotnik, the league's top scorer, has also missed 12, but few miss at the rate Kyogo did before his injury. Marvin Ducksch, Jay Stansfield, and August Priske have missed 14 big chances between them, as Davies has struggled to settle on a preferred forward line. The constant rotation may contribute to the strikers' lack of confidence. Stansfield's goal against Preston was a much-needed boost after recent struggles.
Not Potent Enough from Set Pieces
In English football this season, set-piece proficiency correlates strongly with league position. Arsenal, Coventry, Lincoln, and Bromley have scored the most set-piece goals in their respective divisions and lead their leagues. Teams aiming for the top must excel in set pieces both offensively and defensively.
The Blues have left much to be desired in this area, scoring the 12th-most set-piece goals with 14 across the season. Coventry, by contrast, have scored 27. This cannot be solely attributed to a lack of height; while Coventry have tall players, they also have smaller ones. Birmingham are currently seeking a dedicated set-piece coach to improve this aspect, following modern trends.
Defensively, the Blues have conceded 17 set-piece goals, the ninth-most in the league. Preston's set-piece goal last night was unconventional, but Birmingham looked disorganized when the ball was delivered. While the set-piece situation is not catastrophic, being average is no longer sufficient for competing at the top end of any league.
Too Many Red Cards
Only Sheffield United have received more red cards than Birmingham City in the Championship this season. Jack Robinson is the only player sent off twice, following early-season red cards against Coventry and Hull. The club's five red cards have resulted in 188 minutes played with ten men.
Red cards are part of football, but playing with a numerical disadvantage for extended periods is a huge handicap. All four matches in which the Blues played long periods with ten men ended in defeat, and it is tempting to wonder how those results might have differed with a full squad. This is an area where Birmingham can easily improve. With the top eight teams qualifying for the Championship play-offs next season, small tweaks could be enough to push them over the line.
