London's world-famous black cab faces an existential threat, with a stark report warning the iconic vehicles could disappear from the capital's streets within the next 20 years. The warning comes despite new data showing a significant surge in the number of people training to become cabbies.
Renewed Interest Amidst an Existential Crisis
According to a damning report published in March by the Centre for London, if the current rate of decline in taxi numbers continues, the black cab would be extinct by 2045. This alarming prediction has prompted urgent calls for London Mayor Sadiq Khan to intervene and protect cabbies across the capital.
In a contrasting sign of hope, recent figures from Transport for London (TfL) reveal a strong renewed interest in joining the profession. Applications to take the legendary 'Knowledge of London' test rose by an impressive 68.6% to 742 by the end of November 2025. Furthermore, 1,390 people are currently undertaking the rigorous training.
Helen Chapman, TfL's Director of Licensing and Regulation, stated the organisation was "proud" to see this resurgence. Katie Chennells, Knowledge of London Manager, added: "We are committed to supporting all applicants... ensuring that the Knowledge continues to uphold the highest standards of service, safety and professionalism for Londoners and visitors alike."
Calls for Mayoral Intervention to Secure Future
The positive training data underscores the enduring prestige of the qualification, but industry experts stress it is not enough to reverse the trade's fortunes alone. Sam Pooke, head of public policy at ride-hailing app Freenow, commented: "Taxis are an integral part of London’s transport network... However, these findings show that without intervention from the Mayor of London, TfL, and central government, the iconic London black cab could soon become a thing of the past."
Mayor Sadiq Khan has previously acknowledged the severe pressures facing the trade. He said: "At a time when the taxi trade and private hire industry face huge pressures, this new action plan will help to bolster and protect them, retaining and attracting more drivers to the trade and ensuring high safety standards."
The Spirit of the Knowledge Endures
Now in its 160th year, the Knowledge of London remains a unique and demanding institution. TfL highlights that the current uptake demonstrates both the "prestige of the qualification and the growing appeal of a career in the capital's taxi industry". The commitment to maintaining a service that is "trusted, expertly informed, and accessible to all" continues to be the core mission.
The coming years will be critical. The challenge for city authorities is to translate the current wave of trainee interest into a sustainable, long-term future for the black cab, ensuring this symbol of London does not fade into history.
