Fresh weather modelling indicates a significant snow event is poised to strike the United Kingdom in early February, with specific regions identified for heavy accumulations while others appear set to escape the worst of the wintry conditions.
Major Snow Event Forecast for February 9
According to the latest data from WX Charts, which utilises the ECMWF modelling system, a substantial band of Arctic air is expected to bring widespread snow across the country from February 9, 2026. The maps depict a vast plume of white covering large swathes of England, signalling a potential major disruption to travel and daily life.
Regions in the Firing Line
The Midlands and the entire northern part of England are highlighted as being at particular risk from this incoming snow bomb. Birmingham and the wider West Midlands county are confirmed to be among the areas facing a significant downturn in conditions, with forecasts suggesting notable snow accumulations.
The Lucky 11 Counties
In contrast to the bleak outlook for central and northern regions, weather maps show distinct pockets coloured in grey, indicating areas with little to no expected snow build-up. Analysis reveals that eleven counties in total are projected to stay relatively dry during this event.
The counties facing 0cm snow depths on February 9, and thus escaping the main brunt of the snowfall, are:
- Devon
- Dorset
- Cornwall
- Wiltshire
- Isle of Wight
- Bedfordshire
- Berkshire
- Hertfordshire
- Essex
- Norfolk
- Suffolk
Expert Analysis on Atmospheric Conditions
Nick Finnis, a forecaster from Netweather TV, has provided detailed insight into the atmospheric drivers behind this forecast. He warns that the conditions which triggered the infamous Beast from the East in 2018 could potentially repeat themselves.
Potential for a Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event
In a blog post, Mr Finnis explained that weather models have been signalling the potential for a major Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event to occur in early February 2026. This phenomenon involves a rapid warming in the Arctic stratosphere, which can lead to a breakdown of the polar vortex.
"This disruption to the stratospheric polar vortex could be exceptionally strong," he stated. "If the SSW does occur, it will significantly increase the risk of cold snaps, blocking patterns, and high-impact weather across the Northern Hemisphere, including Europe, two to six weeks later."
Model Data and Historical Context
Current model data from major systems like the ECMWF and GFS indicate what Mr Finnis describes as a "textbook major disruption", with stratospheric temperatures over the Arctic projected to spike by 40–50°C within a matter of days.
However, he offers a crucial note of caution: "A SSW does not guarantee much colder and wintry weather will occur, such as the 'Beast from the East'. Rather, it 'reloads the dice' by making extreme winter patterns more likely."
Statistically, he notes that around two out of three major SSWs that lead to a split polar vortex subsequently bring severe cold spells to the UK and Ireland, underscoring the elevated risk period the country is entering.
