Forecasters are now tracking three potential 'snow bombs' that could strike parts of England on Sunday, December 21, according to the latest weather modelling.
Triple Threat of Snow Forecast
Data from WX Charts, which uses Met Desk information, indicates a significant increase in the risk of disruptive snowfall just days before Christmas. The advanced GFS modelling system shows one system poised to hammer Greater Manchester and Lancashire.
Two further snow bombs are depicted developing in other parts of northern England. Areas at particular risk include the Lake District and the Pennines, to the west of Newcastle. Separate charts also suggest Scotland could see up to four additional patches of heavy snow.
BBC Urges Caution Over Long-Range Forecast
The BBC Weather team has emphasised there is "very low confidence" surrounding predictions for the second half of December. This uncertainty is due not only to the long-range nature of the forecast but also to ongoing disturbances in the upper atmosphere.
In an update, the BBC explained the complexity, stating impacts are hard to predict as these disturbances "trickle down to the troposphere, the layer in which our weather occurs".
Potential Shifts in Weather Patterns
The BBC's outlook for late December suggests patterns could shift, with a tentative expectation that high pressure could become more prevalent across or near the UK and Ireland. This scenario would lead to drier conditions for a while before Christmas.
However, the alignment of this high pressure will be critical. The BBC notes: "Current indications are for [temperatures] to be near or slightly above normal, but with some clearer and calmer nights there could be more frost and fog."
The forecast includes a significant caveat: a risk that high pressure could build at higher latitudes, opening the door to colder outbreaks later in the period. The BBC will issue its next update on Tuesday.
Immediate Weather Warnings in Place
This long-range snow speculation comes as the UK deals with immediate severe weather. An Atlantic weather system is expected to bring 100-120mm of rain to Welsh high ground on Monday.
The Met Office has issued an Amber warning for this rainfall, citing concerns over already-saturated ground and a potential danger to life from fast-flowing floodwater.
