Andy Burnham is preparing to "push ahead" with benefits reform, according to reports, as fresh data confirmed the number of young people not in education, employment or training (NEETs) has fallen back below one million. The Office for National Statistics published figures on Thursday showing that between April and June, 981,000 people aged 16 to 24 were classed as NEETs, down from 1.01 million in the first three months of the year.
Despite the decline, the number remains at the second-highest level in almost 13 years, and is still 30,000 higher than the same period a year ago. The data precedes planned reforms to the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) system, which could see changes to Personal Independence Payment (PIP) and Universal Credit.
McFadden calls NEET figures 'too high'
DWP minister and Labour Party cabinet member Pat McFadden said the figures were "too high" and came with a "terrible human cost" as well as "a big cost for the country". Speaking to the BBC on Thursday, Mr McFadden said dealing with the recent rise in NEETs should be "a cause not just for the government but for the country as a whole".
The Financial Times reports that Mr Burnham's decision last month to keep Mr McFadden in his role after succeeding Sir Keir Starmer as Prime Minister is being "widely interpreted as a signal that he wants to press ahead with welfare reform."
Autumn Budget to focus on defence
However, according to the Telegraph, Mr Burnham will not include any DWP changes in his Autumn Budget. Instead, the October 28 address will be framed as a "defence Budget". This means any significant welfare changes will be delayed until later.
The Telegraph reports that Mr Burnham will wait for the findings of the Timms Review and the Milburn Review before creating a new DWP system for PIP and Universal Credit. Changes are not expected until "the new year," meaning January 2027 at the earliest.
Experts warn of 'no quick fixes'
Ben Harrison, director of the Work Foundation think-tank, said the latest figures indicated there were "no quick fixes to the youth employment crisis." He added: "The number of young people out of education, employment or training may have dipped just below one million, but it would be a mistake to assume this is a turning point as it remains 30,000 higher than a year ago."
Susannah Hardyman, chief executive of youth employment charity Impetus, highlighted the long-term costs of youth unemployment. She said: "We estimate that each young person who becomes NEET costs the state an average of £244,000 over their lifetime, through lost tax revenues and higher welfare, NHS and criminal justice costs."
The latest ONS data marks the second consecutive quarterly decline in NEET numbers, but officials and campaigners alike stress that the figures remain historically high. The DWP reforms, when they eventually arrive, are expected to reshape how PIP and Universal Credit are assessed and delivered, with the Timms Review and Milburn Review expected to provide the policy foundations. For now, the government's focus remains on defence spending in the upcoming Budget, with welfare changes postponed until next year.
