Halifax says house prices are falling, Nationwide says they are rising. Both major lenders have released conflicting data for April, leaving potential buyers confused about the state of the UK housing market.
Diverging Data from Major Lenders
New Halifax data shows house prices slipped by 0.1 per cent in April, following a 0.5 per cent fall in March. Annual growth slowed to 0.4 per cent, with the average UK home valued at £299,313. In contrast, Nationwide's April index reported a 0.4 per cent monthly rise and three per cent annual growth, with its average UK house price at £278,880.
This split can be baffling for buyers trying to decide whether now is the right time to make an offer. Joseph Lane, a mortgage broker at Mortgage Lane, warns against treating national data as a direct guide to local markets.
"Buyers see one index saying prices are falling and another saying they are rising, and they naturally ask which one is right," Lane said. "The answer is that both can be right, because they are measuring slightly different things. The danger is when buyers take one headline and turn it into a negotiation strategy."
Why the Discrepancy?
The split between Halifax and Nationwide is not unusual. Both are major lenders, but their house price indices are based on their own mortgage approval data. Each index reflects the type of borrowers, properties, and regions moving through that lender's pipeline.
Lane added: "That is the bit buyers rarely understand. These indices are not a full record of every home sold in the UK. They are based on each lender's data, adjusted in their own way. So if one lender has more activity in certain regions or property types, that can affect what the index shows."
He compared house price indices to weather forecasts: "They tell you whether it is generally getting warmer or colder, but they do not tell you whether it is raining outside the house you are about to view."
What Buyers Should Do
Lane advises buyers to focus on the specific property they are interested in. "The property you are buying is the only market that really matters," he said. "That sounds blunt, but it is true."
He warned against assuming a national dip means every seller will accept a large discount. "A 0.1 per cent fall in one national index does not mean every seller in the country is suddenly open to a £20,000 discount. That is where buyers get carried away. They go into viewings thinking the market has collapsed, when actually the home they want might still be in a popular area with plenty of interest."
Lane highlighted that negotiation power varies by property type and location. "If you are buying a flat in a slower city-centre market, you may have more room to negotiate. If you are looking at a well-priced family home near good schools, you might still face competition. National averages are useful for context, but they do not tell you how much leverage you have on a specific property."
Detailed Data
Nationwide reported that annual price growth picked up to three per cent in April, from 2.2 per cent in March, with prices rising 0.4 per cent month on month after seasonal adjustment. Halifax, meanwhile, showed annual growth cooling to 0.4 per cent, the weakest since December, according to Reuters and The Guardian.
Lane concluded: "The truth is usually in the detail. What region? What property type? What price bracket? What condition is the home in? A national number will not answer those questions."
