Think Tank Urges Triple Lock Scrapping to Fund Social Care
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) has advised the new Prime Minister Andy Burnham to abandon the triple lock on state pensions as a way to finance his proposed social care reforms. The think tank warns that the current welfare bill, particularly the pension guarantee, is unsustainable and will become more costly as the population ages.
In his upcoming speech on Wednesday, Mr Burnham is expected to stop short of unveiling a complete new social care system. Instead, he will announce plans to accelerate an independent review led by Louise Casey, which has been exploring various options for reform. This approach suggests a gradual rather than immediate overhaul.
No Room for Borrowing, Says NIESR Deputy Director
Stephen Millard, deputy director for macroeconomics at NIESR, stressed that any new spending commitments must be offset by cuts elsewhere. "There's clearly no scope for increasing borrowing, so it is about choices," he said. "Our advice would very much be to fund these through higher taxes – which could involve tax reform rather than higher marginal rates – or cuts in spending elsewhere."
Millard specifically pointed to the triple lock on pensions as "very, very expensive and will get more expensive as we age." The triple lock guarantees a minimum 2.5% increase each year, which at the current rate would mean an extra £313 annually for state pensioners on the full rate. This figure forms the basis of the proposed DWP cut.
Burnham's Vision: Dignity and Security for All
Ahead of his visit to a care home on Wednesday, Mr Burnham framed the issue as a defining choice for his government. "This comes down to a choice. We can carry on passing the problem to the next generation, or we can face it head on and work together to build a care system that gives people dignity, security and the support they deserve."
The Prime Minister added: "This is about bringing back hope that we can finally fix the difficult issues that have been ignored for too long, and making Britain believe again. That’s why I’m making this choice and I’m prepared to put everything I’ve got behind it."
Political Reactions: Lib Dems and Reform UK Respond
Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey expressed cautious support, noting on X: "I’m with my family in France and as people know I have a disabled son who needs 24/7 care so I can’t be back in Westminster tomorrow but I look forward to meeting Andy Burnham over Zoom. I’m hopeful this call may prove to be the first step towards fixing our broken care service."
In contrast, Reform UK leader Nigel Farage, who was not invited to the discussions and whose party holds only seven seats, criticised the process. He accused Burnham of "conspiring behind closed doors with the failed political establishment." The exclusion highlights the delicate political balance as the Prime Minister seeks cross-party consensus.
Impact on State Pensioners
If implemented, the proposed cut of £313 per year from the full state pension would affect millions of retirees. The triple lock, which ensures pensions rise by the higher of inflation, average earnings, or 2.5%, has been a key policy for successive governments. Critics argue it is too generous, while defenders say it protects older people from rising living costs. The NIESR analysis suggests that reforming this mechanism is an "obvious place to look" for savings to fund long-term social care improvements.
Next Steps
The independent Casey review is expected to report back within months, offering a range of options from a new social insurance model to means-tested benefits. Mr Burnham has committed to taking forward its recommendations, though the details remain uncertain. Meanwhile, the Treasury will have to weigh the trade-offs between pension cuts, tax increases, and spending reductions in other areas. The debate over how to fund social care is far from over.
