The UK is bracing for a sweltering 40C heatwave this summer, marking the first time since 2022 that such extreme temperatures are expected. Scientists warn that a so-called Super El Niño, a powerful natural weather pattern that raises global temperatures and reduces rainfall, could send temperatures skyrocketing.
El Niño Likely to Occur Before September
The World Meteorological Organization has revealed that there is an 80 per cent chance of the El Niño phenomenon occurring before September and a 90 per cent chance of it persisting until November. Forecasts suggest this event could be among the strongest ever recorded, potentially sparking hotter temperatures than in history. This means that the heatwave at the end of May may be just the beginning for the UK.
Expert Predicts 40C-Plus Heat
Professor Bill McGuire, emeritus professor of geophysical and climate hazards at University College London and author of The Fate of the World: A History and Future of the Climate Crisis, stated: "Summer temperatures could certainly be impacted, possibly this year, but more likely next, as the planet heats up. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see 40C-plus heat." Such temperatures would mark a return to the record-breaking heat of 2022.
Spring 2026 Among Warmest on Record
Spring 2026 was the UK's third warmest on record, with England and Wales experiencing their warmest spring. May 2026 ended with a record-breaking heatwave, as Kew Gardens reached 35.1C. This follows a trend of increasing warmth, with nine of the ten warmest springs in England occurring since 2007.
Met Office Comments on Changing Climate
Met Office Scientist Dr Emily Carlisle said: "This spring highlights both the natural variability of the UK's weather and the longer-term warming we are observing. While conditions varied through the season, all three months of meteorological spring recorded mean temperatures within the UK's top ten warmest on record. The fact that nine of the ten warmest springs in England have occurred since 2007 illustrates this ongoing shift in the UK's climate."
Drought Risk Increases
Helen Wakeham, Environment Agency Director of Water and Chair of the National Drought Group, warned: "No parts of England are currently in drought, but the risk increases the longer it remains hot and dry. The recent heatwave has seen significant peaks in demand for water, while river flows have fallen due to the very dry spring, and reservoir levels are reducing. We continue to closely track the situation and have convened a National Drought Group meeting in the coming weeks, so we are prepared if the dry conditions remain. We must continue to adapt to our changing climate and all be wise with our water use."
Uncertainty Remains
El Niño is sensitive to wind patterns, which are difficult to predict far in advance, making it the biggest wildcard for this phenomenon. However, even if El Niño falls short of "super" territory, the consequences could still be extreme.
