A new report has issued a stark warning that the UK is facing a childhood health crisis, with projections indicating that a quarter of all children could be classified as clinically obese by 2035 if current trends continue.
The Class of 2035 Report: A Nation at a Crossroads
The Youth Sport Trust has launched its latest Class of 2035 Report, produced in partnership with research agency Savanta. Using artificial intelligence modelling and insights from children’s polling, the report projects the severe consequences of ongoing physical inactivity for the generation starting school this year.
It paints a deeply concerning picture of a nation at a crossroads, where rising inactivity is directly linked to falling wellbeing among the young.
The Alarming Projections for 2035
The report outlines a troubling future if urgent action is not taken to increase physical activity levels. By 2035, based on current trends:
- Almost half (48%) of children will spend three hours or more on screens for entertainment daily, a significant rise from 34% in 2025.
- More than a third (34%) will fail to be active for even 30 minutes a day, falling far short of the UK Chief Medical Officers’ guidance of 60 active minutes.
- Obesity and mental health disorders are projected to increase significantly, with more than 180,000 children (24%) classified as clinically obese.
- Annual Type 2 diabetes diagnoses in children will double, reaching 500 new cases each year.
- Schools will experience declining attendance, engagement, and a sense of belonging among the least active pupils.
The Economic and Social Value of Movement
The report’s release coincides with the Chancellor preparing the Autumn Budget, highlighting the need for targeted investment. New insights from Sport England underscore the enormous value of physical activity.
Their social value model estimates that active lifestyles provide £8 billion in direct net savings to the healthcare system through illness prevention. Furthermore, they have placed a wellbeing value of £14.1 billion on the participation of children and young people aged 7 to 16.
Ali Oliver MBE, Chief Executive of the Youth Sport Trust, stated: “The findings in this third report leave us in no doubt things can and will get worse for children, but also for the country unless we accept children must move, play and be active every day for normal physical, social, emotional and cognitive growth.”
She added that without action, we risk delivering “a generation with poorer health, lower happiness, lower attainment and as a result, lower life chances than generations prior - a legacy of physical and mental neglect.”
A Commission for Change
In response to these alarming findings, the Youth Sport Trust has launched the Sport Changes Lives Commission, chaired by former Trustee, Dr Paula Franklin.
This commission brings together leading experts from healthcare, child development, and public health. They will review the evidence and publish recommendations in early 2026 for addressing and reversing these damaging trends.
Mat Shaw, CEO of Great Ormond Street Hospital for Children, emphasised the universal need for activity, noting that studies show even children undergoing serious illness treatment can have better outcomes if they stay active.
Together, the report and the commission aim to spark a national conversation and drive policy changes to ensure every child has the opportunity to benefit from play, sport, and physical activity.
