NHS leaders in the West Midlands are preparing for the annual winter surge in demand, with a stark warning that hospitals could face a shortfall of more than 400 acute beds unless targeted actions are taken. The disclosure came during a meeting of the NHS Birmingham and Solihull and Black Country Joint ICB Cluster Board, where the 2026/27 Winter Plan is being finalised to ease pressure on services across the region.
The board was told that, without intervention, the general and acute bed deficit would peak at 412 beds. This figure emerges from significant demand and capacity modelling that incorporates both ICB and individual provider models, according to a report presented to the board.
Prevention and Alternatives to Hospital Care
A key element of the Winter Plan is a focus on prevention and alternatives to hospital treatment. Vaccinations are a major priority, with an additional £1 million ring-fenced to enhance the immunisation programme over the winter period.
Other measures aim to prevent unnecessary A&E admissions. These include acute respiratory infection hubs, which will provide extra capacity during the winter, as well as promoting the use of NHS 111, urgent treatment centres, frailty services, hot clinics, and virtual wards.
The report also confirmed that work will continue on addressing ambulance handover times and staff sickness levels, both of which are critical to maintaining patient flow through hospitals.
Winter Plan Details and Mitigations
The report to the board stated: "The local Winter Plan brings together the planned response of acute, community, mental health, ambulance, NHS 111, primary care, pharmacy, local authority and social care partners across Birmingham, the Black Country and Solihull."
It added: "It covers prevention and vaccination, admission avoidance, demand and capacity, acute and community flow, discharge, surge capacity, workforce resilience, infection prevention, communications, severe weather and System Co-ordination Centre arrangements."
The plan is based on "significant demand and capacity modelling, incorporating ICB and individual provider models." This modelling highlighted that, without targeted intervention, winter pressures would result in a general and acute bed deficit of 412 beds at its peak.
Residual Gap and Submission Deadline
The report went on to say: "The Winter Plan sets out a range of mitigations and interventions that, at the time of writing, mitigates 335 beds, leaving a residual gap of 77 beds where further mitigation is required."
This means that even with the planned actions, a shortfall of 77 beds remains, requiring additional measures to be identified. The Winter Plan must be completed and submitted to NHS England by September 30, leaving little time for further adjustments.
The development of the plan is part of a wider effort to ensure that health and care services across Birmingham, the Black Country, and Solihull are as prepared as possible for the seasonal pressures that typically arrive with colder weather and increased respiratory illness.
