Two new polls have sent shockwaves through candidates vying for seats on Birmingham City Council and in neighbouring Sandwell, Walsall and Coventry. Polling experts YouGov put warring parties Reform and Labour neck and neck in Birmingham, each landing 21 seats each. While analysis by AI elections experts Bombe predicts a similar close race between the two parties in the city.
Birmingham
The full YouGov findings are (for 100 out of 101 seats): Conservatives - 13, Greens - 19, Independents and small parties - 14, Labour - 21, Liberal Democrats - 12, Reform - 21. The poll is based on data gathered 27 March - 21 April.
The Bombe analysis makes a similar prediction but suggests that Labour and Reform would together hold 60 of the 101 seats on the council, with the Greens making meaningful gains and the Independents and smaller parties predicted to hold or take 18 seats. The model predicts Labour will fall from 52 to 31 seats. Reform are predicted to win 29 seats. The Greens are predicted to take 12 seats (up from 2). The Conservatives will have 11 seats. Independents and smaller parties will surge in inner city areas and take 18 seats in all. It means Labour would remain the largest single party but without overall control.
Sandwell
YouGov and Bombe both predict the council will be led by Reform UK after May 7. YouGov predict a tight outcome, with Reform holding 28 seats, Labour on 25, Greens on 21 and Conservatives on 15. But Bombe have Reform dominating, ending up with 60 out of 72 seats.
Walsall
Reform will also take Walsall in a shock outcome, according to YouGov and Bombe. Under the Bombe analysis, Reform are predicted to win 41 of 60 seats, taking outright majority control. The Conservatives are predicted to fall from 30 seats to 9. Labour are predicted to fall from 11 seats to 4. Others and Independents are predicted to collapse from 18 seats to just 3 - their vote largely absorbed by Reform. The Greens are predicted on 3 seats.
Coventry
Bombe predict the area will also become a Reform-led council. Their candidates are predicted to win 35 of 54 seats, taking outright control of the council. Labour are predicted to fall from 39 seats to just nine, while Labour end up with eight. The Greens are predicted to have two seats. It's a better picture for Labour under the YouGov poll, which has them managing to hold onto 26 seats, equal with Reform, with the Greens expected to win 24 seats.
Solihull
This is an unpredictable outcome for YouGov, which has Reform nudging ahead with 31 seats compared to 26 for the Conservatives. But the Conservatives fare better under the Bombe analysis, and Reform a lot worse. Conservatives are predicted to win 30 seats, maintaining overall control. They currently hold 28 seats. Reform UK are predicted to rise from three seats to 13 - the most significant movement in the council. The Liberal Democrats are predicted to hold at four with Green also falling from eight seats to four.
Wolverhampton
In Wolverhampton, Labour are predicted to fall from 44 seats to 30, losing their overall majority, according to Bombe. Meanwhile, Reform are gaining ground and are predicted to win 15 seats, up from two. The Conservatives with 14 is the third biggest party according to Bombe analysis. Under this model, Labour remain the largest party but without a working majority. Reform and Conservative combined on 29 seats could make the council genuinely competitive.
Dudley
Dudley is holding a partial election with only 25 of 73 seats being contested. The Conservatives are currently the largest party on 33 seats, ahead of Labour on 23. The Bombe model predicts Conservatives will end with around 29 total seats, Reform UK will rise from three to 20, and Labour will hold approximately 14. The council is predicted to remain in no overall control.
Mike Joslin, co-founder and CEO of Bombe, said: "The West Midlands is the most dramatic regional story in our model this May. Reform UK are predicted to take outright control of Sandwell and Coventry - both currently Labour councils — while Birmingham, the country's largest local authority, is heading for no overall control for the first time in recent memory." He said: "Bombe's pioneering model is predicting at individual candidate level, factoring in incumbency, local profile and thousands of data points drawn from real-world voting behaviour since 2022. That granularity matters in an election like this - across the West Midlands there are wards where the margin between parties is genuinely wafer-thin, and the result will come down to a handful of votes."
