Andy Burnham's potential premiership raises critical questions for Wales, beyond typical Labour politics or Westminster personalities. His approach to power and economic development could reshape the UK's devolution landscape, with significant implications for Wales.
Burnham's Distinct Political Appeal
Burnham has built a reputation in Greater Manchester around transport, housing, skills, local accountability, and regional leadership. He has demonstrated that English city regions can become serious political and economic actors, making his devolution agenda a key concern for Wales.
Accelerated English Devolution: A Challenge for Wales
If Burnham accelerates devolution within England, Wales could face heightened competition from English regions like Manchester, Birmingham, Liverpool, Leeds, Bristol, and Newcastle. These regions, with stronger leadership and clearer economic priorities, could attract more investment, talent, and innovation, leaving Wales struggling to keep pace.
Five Areas of Increased Competitive Pressure
First, inward investment: powerful mayoral authorities with clear propositions can attract investors more effectively than Wales, where institutional complexity and inter-regional competition obscure its offering. Second, skills: English regions with greater control over training and technical education could align workforces with growth sectors, while Wales, despite having similar levers, has not used them coherently over the past 27 years. Third, infrastructure: Burnham's integrated approach to transport, housing, and employment sites contrasts with Wales' fragmented projects, leaving North Wales particularly behind. Fourth, political influence: powerful English mayors could dominate Whitehall funding and freedoms, overshadowing Wales' devolved status. Fifth, enterprise: Wales' business density remains below the UK average, and a more entrepreneurial England would exacerbate this unless Wales develops a serious strategy for business creation and scale-up.
Wales' Need for Ambition and Competitiveness
Wales must not oppose English devolution but rather focus on using its existing powers more effectively. The Welsh Government needs to ask what it has done with its authority and what more it can do, especially in economic development, business leadership, and support for entrepreneurs. A Burnham premiership could create opportunities for a new UK economic settlement, but only if Wales responds with ambition rather than passivity.
As Dylan Jones-Evans writes, "if English city-regions are given more tools and use them with ambition while those running our nation continue with slow decision-making and institutional caution, the gap will widen. And that won’t be because England has too much devolution, but because Wales has failed to make the most of its own." This is the real lesson: constitutional status alone is insufficient. Increased English devolution may force Wales to become more ambitious, or it may leave it complaining from the sidelines while English regions advance.
