Aston Villa forward Morgan Rogers has launched a passionate defence of his team's performances this season, bluntly dismissing the expected goals (xG) metric used by some to question their credentials.
What is the xG debate about?
The expected goals statistic analyses the quality of chances in a football match, assigning a probability to each shot based on historical data. This season, a curious discrepancy has emerged: while Aston Villa have been firmly in the Premier League's top three in recent weeks, their xG ranking sits at a modest 12th.
This gap was highlighted in their recent 1-0 defeat to Everton. Despite Villa recording an xG of 1.36 compared to Everton's 0.56, they lost the match without scoring. On other occasions, victories have been secured through spectacular long-range efforts from players like Rogers, Boubacar Kamara, and Emi Buendia, even when the underlying xG data was unfavourable.
Rogers' fiery response to the statistics
Speaking to Sky Sports, Rogers did not hold back in his assessment of the analytics. "I think it's a whole load of nonsense," the Villa attacker stated. "It feels like a crime with xG putting you down!"
He argued that the shots his team are taking are valid and that manager Unai Emery has actively encouraged midfielders to try their luck from distance. "The manager always said to our midfielders last season, 'I'm still waiting for goals from edge of the box'," Rogers revealed.
"You can’t always score the perfect goal, from a cross or a tap in. There’s different ways to score goals," he continued. "We are utilising that to our advantage and it is working... On paper the percentages might be against you, but not if you keep doing it."
A matter of philosophy and fan excitement
Rogers' critique extends beyond mere numbers to the essence of what makes football entertaining. He connected Villa's style to the desires of the supporters in the stadium.
"Sometimes when you are in a stadium and you hear people shout shoot, then that’s what fans want," he said. "They want excitement, enjoyment, shots and goals to win games. That’s what they want to see."
His comments represent a strong rebuttal to any suggestion that Villa's league position is fortunate. By emphasising skill and strategic choice over statistical probability, Rogers and the Villa squad are making a clear statement: their success is built on talent and execution, not luck.
