Aston Villa's stunning run of form, which has seen them win 15 of their last 17 matches, is being curiously scrutinised through the lens of a single statistical metric: expected goals (xG).
Despite setting club records with nine consecutive wins overall and six in the Premier League, some observers are using the data model to suggest Villa's success might not be fully deserved.
The xG Conundrum and Morgan Rogers' Magic
Expected goals is a metric that calculates the probability of a shot resulting in a goal, based on factors like distance, angle, and shot type. The issue, as Villa's recent performances highlight, is that it often lacks crucial context.
This was perfectly illustrated by Morgan Rogers' spectacular 79th-minute winner against West Ham. The xG value for that long-range effort was a mere 0.02, suggesting he would score only twice from 100 similar attempts.
This ignores Rogers' proven technique, having already scored twice from distance this season against Tottenham and Leeds. The model struggles to account for individual skill and repeatable shooting methods, making it a blunt instrument for analysing such moments of quality.
Underlying Numbers Tell a Different Story
While Villa's early-season form was poor, with draws at Everton and Sunderland, their underlying data has improved dramatically. In their recent victories, they have not relied solely on worldies from outside the box.
The 4-2 comeback win at Brighton featured four goals all from inside the penalty area. Days later, in a 2-1 victory over Arsenal, Villa generated an xG of 2.16 – the highest the Gunners' miserly defence has faced all season.
Against Brighton, Villa registered their highest xG of the campaign at 2.41. Across those two matches alone, they created 11 big chances and scored six goals, demonstrating a potent attack against strong defences.
Context, Points, and the Road Ahead
The fixation on Villa's xG overlooks a fundamental truth in football: the league table is the ultimate measure. Villa have won 15 of their last 17 matches, a rate of success matched by few teams in Europe over the past three months.
Talk of a title challenge remains premature, but the objective is clear. With 10 more league wins this season, Villa would likely reach around 63 points, putting them in a formidable position for a top-four or top-five finish and a return to the Champions League.
Manager Unai Emery, balancing a Europa League campaign with a squad that saw limited summer investment, would see that as a monumental achievement. Instead of questioning their methods, perhaps it's time to simply applaud a team consistently finding ways to win.
