With three matches to go, all is still to play for Aston Villa. Two weeks from now, fans could be reflecting on one of the most glorious seasons in the club's history, or the most gut-wrenching. As early as a week Wednesday, Unai Emery's team could be celebrating the double triumph of qualifying for the Champions League and ending the club's 30-year wait for a major trophy. However, there also remains a chance that Villa will have missed out on two goals which feel so tantalisingly close.
For a fanbase frequently dealing in collective fatalism, often bruised by past disappointment, the margins between euphoria and despair are far too close for comfort, even if the equation remains simple. Win one of their remaining three matches and Villa will, at minimum, achieve their primary aim of returning to the Champions League. If that match is the Europa League final against Freiburg, they will complete both targets in one. That is a scenario anyone connected to Villa would have grasped with both hands at the start of the season, especially in mid-September when they had failed to win any of their first six matches and not even managed a goal in the opening four.
Yet there is an inescapable sense that the first objective—qualifying for the Champions League through the Premier League—should have already been long secured. Sunday's trip to already relegated Burnley was the latest and best chance for Villa to take a major leap toward qualification. Instead, the 2-2 draw was only another small step along the road, encouraging those teams trying to catch them. Like a marathon runner who has burned too much energy in the middle miles, Villa are stumbling down the home straight, with the footsteps of fresher rivals sounding ever louder.
Ten matches ago, Villa were 13 points clear of Bournemouth and 19 ahead of Brighton. Those gaps are now four and five points respectively. Should Villa fail to take their next chance to seal the deal at home to Liverpool on Friday, they risk heading to Istanbul under even more pressure to deliver in what is arguably the second biggest fixture in the club's history. Despite his team having taken just nine points from their last 10 matches and one from the past three, Emery remained upbeat in tone at Turf Moor, even if his face could not hide his frustration.
The bigger picture remains positive, and the manager is correct to describe the team's current fifth position and reaching the Europa League final as fantastic. Villa can become only the fourth team in the last decade—and the first from outside the Big Six—to qualify for the Champions League through league position and win a European trophy in the same season. Crystal Palace and Newcastle, two other non-Big Six clubs who have juggled domestic and European exploits this season, are both in the Premier League's bottom half. Emery refuses to be too critical of players from whom he has dragged everything. Morgan Rogers has struggled for consistency in recent weeks, but that is hardly surprising considering the 23-year-old has played in more matches (107) than any Premier League player since the start of last season.
On the flip side, the reliance on Rogers, John McGinn, Ollie Watkins, and others, combined with Emery's need to manage workloads, only serves to highlight recent poor recruitment. Villa's success this term is remarkable for being achieved despite a summer transfer window in which they failed to land a single dependable attacking signing. Harvey Elliott was quickly sidelined, Evan Guessand shipped out to Crystal Palace, while Jadon Sancho has produced just one goal and three assists in all competitions and was left on the bench as Villa chased a winner at Burnley. January is turning out little better. Tammy Abraham's two Premier League goals have salvaged three increasingly precious points, yet Emery appears unconvinced. Douglas Luiz, brought on loan to replace Boubacar Kamara and Tielemans, has now fallen behind a defender, Victor Lindelof, in the pecking order. Hopes that Leon Bailey's Villa career could be rejuvenated have proven futile. Another big summer lies ahead.
Everything is still in Villa's hands. A cushion of four points in fifth place with two Premier League matches to play is decent. Even a point against Liverpool, only ahead of Emery's side on goal difference, would require Bournemouth and Brighton to be perfect to overhaul them. These are the kind of days of which supporters could once have only dreamed. That means nothing when it comes to dealing with the nerves. An era-defining few days lie ahead.
