Aston Villa are engaged in a determined battle to reclaim a spot in the Champions League, following a near-miss last season that left them just short of Europe's elite competition. Under the guidance of manager Unai Emery, the team has showcased remarkable form since September 2025, overcoming a sluggish start to position themselves firmly within the Premier League's top three. This resurgence has ignited hopes of a memorable campaign, with Villa aiming to solidify their standing among the league's best.
Current Standings and Challenges
Historically, securing a top-four finish in the Premier League has been the gateway to Champions League football, and Villa are well on track to achieve this goal. They have established a significant lead over rivals such as Liverpool, Manchester United, Newcastle United, and Tottenham Hotspur. However, the memory of last season's final-day disappointment, compounded by injuries to key players, serves as a stark reminder that complacency is not an option as the season reaches its critical phase.
Points Required for Champions League Qualification
According to the latest data from Opta's supercomputer, Aston Villa are projected to finish in third place with an estimated 70 points, which should comfortably secure their Champions League berth. The analysis suggests that a tally of 64 points is likely sufficient to clinch a top-four position. Based on their current performances and points accumulation, Villa are given a 91.57% probability of qualifying for Europe's premier club competition.
It is also noteworthy that finishing in the top five might be enough to guarantee Champions League football next season, depending on England's position in UEFA's coefficient rankings. This season, five Premier League teams are poised to advance automatically to the last 16 of the Champions League, bolstering the nation's coefficient and enhancing the chances for additional English clubs to qualify.
Historical Points Averages for Top-Four Finishes
On average, teams in the Premier League have needed approximately 66 points to secure a top-four finish. The lowest points tally ever recorded for a team achieving this feat was Liverpool's 60 points in the 2003/04 season, a campaign that remarkably led to their Champions League triumph the following year. Conversely, the highest points total required was 76 points, also set by Liverpool during the 2016/17 season under manager Jurgen Klopp. In that same season, Arsenal amassed 75 points but still missed out on Champions League qualification, marking a rare absence under then-manager Arsene Wenger.
As Aston Villa navigate the remainder of the season, their focus will be on accumulating the necessary points to avoid any last-minute heartbreak and secure their return to the Champions League stage.
