New weather maps from the GFS advanced modelling system have confirmed the exact start and end dates for the July heatwave in the UK, with temperatures forecast to reach a scorching 41C in Birmingham. The heatwave is expected to begin on July 6, with highs of 30C, and peak on July 11, breaking the previous record set four years ago in 2022.
Heatwave Timeline and Peak Temperatures
According to the GFS models, the heat will return from July 6, bringing 30C highs across much of the country. By July 11, temperatures will soar to 41C in Birmingham, surpassing the 2022 record. The heatwave is expected to end shortly after July 11, though exact end dates may vary by region.
Short-Term Weather Outlook
Met Office forecaster Honor Criswick provided a short-term outlook, stating: "The new week brings in some fresher air, it's not going to be feeling as hot or humid, but there is still some sunshine in the forecast." She added: "For most, we are going to see some showers pushing in to the North West at times, but across Scotland any showers will become well scattered by Monday afternoon. By the afternoon, there will be plenty of sunny spells and much lighter winds, with highs reaching around 23 to 24C."
BBC Forecast for the Coming Days
The BBC forecasts that Monday (June 29) will be breezy with variable cloud and sunny spells, with a few showers in the north-west and possibly the south-west. Northern Ireland will turn overcast and wet later. Overnight into Tuesday (June 30), cloud will spread from the west with outbreaks of rain moving across the north, locally heavy in Northern Ireland and west Scotland. The south will remain mainly dry with some clear spells by dawn.
Tuesday will see cloudy conditions in the north with rain, clearing later to sunny spells and thundery showers. The south will be drier but with afternoon showers expected. For Wednesday to Friday, the outlook indicates wet and windy weather in the north on Wednesday, while the south enjoys sunny spells. Thursday will bring areas of cloud and sunshine, with isolated rain possible. Friday will be cloudy in the north with light rain for western Scotland, while the south remains drier with sunny spells.
Record-Breaking Heat and Impact
The forecast 41C in Birmingham would mark a significant milestone, breaking the previous UK heat record of 40.3C recorded in 2022. The heatwave is expected to affect travel, health, and energy demand, with authorities advising the public to stay hydrated and avoid peak sun hours. The Met Office may issue heat health warnings as the event approaches.
