The Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) could axe the most 'terrible' rule for state pensioners if it bows to growing pressure. The Triple Lock, which has long been seen as untouchable, is now at risk amid mounting criticism.
Pressure on Labour Government
There is intense pressure for the Labour Party government to act and scrap the metric. This year, headline state pension rates will be hiked by 4.8 per cent under the Triple Lock. This popular government guarantee means the state pension is increased every year by whichever is the highest of inflation, average earnings growth, or 2.5 per cent.
Criticism from Former Officials
Former Conservative Party Chancellor Sir Jeremy Hunt and Labour Party grandee Baroness Harman have both suggested the policy may no longer be sustainable. Labour MP Graeme Downie said there is 'an appetite in all parties' to revisit the policy, adding that if welfare is used to fund defence 'there are no sacred cows'.
Sir Charles Bean, former deputy governor of the Bank of England, called it 'a terrible policy… that is unsustainable'. Former NATO chief Lord Robertson warned: 'We cannot defend Britain with an ever-expanding welfare budget.'
Public Support Remains Strong
A recent poll by Lord Ashcroft suggested that six in 10 voters support the policy. Sir Charles said voters 'always like having money spent on them if there’s no price tag attached'. However, Reform UK Treasury spokesman Robert Jenrick has committed the party to retaining the Triple Lock on pensions.
Historical Impact
Between 2011/12 and 2023/24, the state pension rose by inflation on six occasions, by 2.5 per cent on four occasions, and by average earnings on three. By 2023/24, the state pension was already 10.9 per cent higher than it would have been had it risen with CPI and 10.6 per cent higher than it would have been had it risen with average earnings. The Triple Lock is adding around £15 billion a year to public expenditure over and above the level it would be had it never existed.
