Latest polling shows that as Andy Burnham settles into Downing Street as the UK's new Prime Minister, the majority of his MPs in the West Midlands face losing their seats. Nationally, the former Greater Manchester mayor's arrival has stabilised the party's standing, pulling them back into a neck-and-neck race with Reform UK. However, polls predicting how people would vote at a next general election show a different story in the West Midlands.
Labour's projected collapse in the West Midlands
Among the 29 seats in and around Birmingham and the Black Country, 23 went to Labour last time. This time round, it is projected to be just seven. Reform UK, which has suffered a dip in national polling, is projected to gain 14 seats in the area – all from Labour – with the Green Party picking up another two. If the polls were to come true, Labour would hold just seven seats in the region, and just three in Birmingham. To hammer home the jeopardy for the party, Shabana Mahmood – thought to be the next Chancellor by many – is projected to lose her Ladywood seat, according to the latest PLMR poll, conducted by Electoral Calculus.
Reform UK's rise drives Labour's decline
The primary driver of Labour's West Midlands collapse is the dramatic rise of Reform UK. Even with tactical voting factored in, Reform is projected to sweep nearly half of the region's seats. Key battlegrounds that flipped to Labour in 2024 are set to swing heavily to Reform. In Dudley, where Labour won in 2024, Reform is now predicted to win with 33% of the vote. Similar stories are unfolding in crucial bellwether seats like Tamworth (32% Reform), Walsall and Bloxwich (28% Reform), and Wolverhampton North East (30% Reform). Even historically solid working-class communities, such as Tipton and Wednesbury, are projected to fall to Reform with a 31% vote share.
Green Party gains from the left
While Reform hollows out Labour's support from the right, the Green Party is launching a highly effective assault from the left, specifically targeting urban Birmingham. The Greens are projected to win two highly prominent seats directly from Labour: Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley (with 27% of the vote) and Birmingham Ladywood (with 37% of the vote). If these projections hold, the West Midlands will become a patchwork of political fragmentation. Alongside Reform's 14 seats and Labour's diminished seven, the Conservatives are projected to hold five seats (including Sutton Coldfield and Solihull West), while the Greens hold two and minor parties claim one.
Broader implications and expert commentary
Kevin Craig, founder of PLMR, who commissioned the poll, said: "Looking ahead, Andy Burnham's return to Westminster does appear to have given Labour fresh energy, but our polling also sends a broader message. Voters have little appetite for another period of political turbulence. Britain faces major economic and international challenges, and people want to see politicians rally behind stable leadership and focus on delivering for the country." The poll was conducted by Find Out Now, surveying 5,545 GB adults online between 23-30 June 2026. The sample was weighted to be representative by gender, age, social grade, other demographics and past voting patterns. Regression techniques were used to infer projected seat results.
Full constituency projections
The following are the projected winners for West Midlands constituencies, with 2024 winners in parentheses: Aldridge-Brownhills – CON (CON); Edgbaston – LAB (LAB); Erdington – LAB (LAB); Hall Green and Moseley – Green (LAB); Hodge Hill and Solihull North – Reform (LAB); Ladywood – Green (LAB); Northfield – Reform (LAB); Perry Barr – Ind (Ind); Selly Oak – LAB (LAB); Yardley – Reform (LAB); Bromsgrove – CON (CON); Cannock Chase – Reform (LAB); Dudley – Reform (LAB); Halesowen – Reform (LAB); Lichfield – Reform (LAB); Meriden and Solihull East – CON (CON); Redditch – Reform (LAB); Smethwick – LAB (LAB); Solihull West and Shirley – CON (CON); Stafford – Reform (LAB); Stourbridge – Reform (LAB); Sutton Coldfield – CON (CON); Tamworth – Reform (LAB); Tipton and Wednesbury – Reform (LAB); Walsall and Bloxwich – Reform (LAB); West Bromwich – LAB (LAB); Wolverhampton North East – Reform (LAB); Wolverhampton South East – LAB (LAB); Wolverhampton West – LAB (LAB).
