Andy Burnham has pledged to keep the pensions triple lock in place, potentially giving millions of pensioners bumper increases. If the full state pension rises at the same rate as this year—4.8%—it could climb by almost £1,900 over the next three years.
Triple Lock Commitment
The PM-in-waiting confirmed his commitment to the triple lock, which ensures annual increases based on the highest of inflation, wage growth, or 2.5%. This year, wages were highest at 4.8%, leading to a significant boost.
Calculations show the full new state pension—paid to those who retired since 2016—could rise from £12,547 to £14,442 by 2029/30, an increase of £1,895. The next general election is not until 2029, so the triple lock should remain in place until at least then.
Financial Implications
Forecasts indicate the pension will continue climbing under the triple lock, despite growing calls for the expensive policy to be scrapped or rethought. The triple lock can be costly if there is a sudden spike in inflation or wages, binding the government to large increases.
An expert at Predictionist said: "The important point is that small annual increases become much bigger over time. A 4.8% rise may not sound dramatic in one year, but if it were repeated for a decade it would push the full new state pension above £20,000 a year."
However, the expert cautioned: "That does not mean pensioners should treat £20,000 as promised income. It is a scenario based on the latest uprating rate being repeated. People should check their own forecast, because the amount they get depends on their National Insurance record and whether they qualify for the full new state pension."
Political Pressure
Burnham, likely facing growing pressure over the triple lock, said: "I appreciate there is a lot of debate about this but it is important that the commitment in the manifesto stands."
