The Met Office and BBC Weather have spoken out over reports of a 41C heatwave hitting the UK in July. Forecasts indicate another heatwave is on the way, with Britain facing a hot, dry summer.
Temperature Predictions for Early July
Netweather TV and WX Charts, both utilising the GFS advanced modelling system, suggest temperatures could exceed 30°C from July 6. WX Charts further predicts 41°C highs are likely by July 11.
Met Office Forecaster's Assessment
Despite the 41°C warnings, Simon Partridge, a forecaster at the Met Office, stated that if another heatwave did occur, it was unlikely to reach the 37°C seen last week. He said: “As we head into the second week of July, we expect to see temperatures rising again, at the moment it is looking at the mid to high 20s and therefore whether we hit heatwave criteria is borderline.”
Mr Partridge added that while the second week of July “does have a chance of seeing the heatwave threshold being achieved,” it won’t be “anywhere near” the conditions of last week.
BBC Weather's Two-Week Outlook
The BBC outlook for Monday 13 July to Sunday 26 July states: “Mostly warmer than average.” It adds: “The outlook further into July has high uncertainty, with longer range models having weak signals and diverging considerably. High pressure should still feature but its position is very uncertain.”
The BBC notes that high pressure anomalies may shift to more northern latitudes for a while through mid-July, which could have similar impacts on temperatures, with most of the UK warmer than normal, or closer to seasonal across some northern areas.
Potential for Thunderstorms and Cooler Conditions
“There may be increasing chances of showers or thunderstorms, but rainfall amounts are most likely to be near or below average overall. Slightly cooler conditions are possible if an Atlantic high pressure ridge also stays in place,” the BBC added.
However, there might eventually be a high pressure development over Scandinavia later in July, which would help to solidify above-average warmth and bring chances of stronger heat. The BBC describes this as “rather speculative at the moment though, and derived from global teleconnections rather than any strong signal in the longer-range models.”
