New polling reveals that Labour faces a devastating collapse in the West Midlands, with its representation projected to plummet from 23 seats to just seven in the next general election, despite Andy Burnham's arrival as Prime Minister stabilising the party nationally.
Reform UK and Greens Make Gains
According to the latest PLMR poll, Reform UK is forecast to gain 14 seats in the region, while the Green Party is set to take two more. Even potential Chancellor Shabana Mahmood is projected to lose her Birmingham Ladywood seat to the Greens.
The dramatic shift highlights the monumental challenge Burnham faces in translating personal popularity into regional votes. Reform UK is driving Labour's collapse, projected to sweep nearly half the region's seats, including former Labour strongholds like Dudley, Tamworth, and Walsall. Historically solid working-class communities such as Tipton and Wednesbury are also set to fall to Reform.
Fragmented Political Landscape
The Greens are targeting urban Birmingham specifically, projected to win Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley alongside Ladywood. This creates a fragmented political landscape across the West Midlands, with Labour losing its dominance.
Kevin Craig, founder of PLMR, said: "Andy Burnham's return to Westminster does appear to have given Labour fresh energy, but our polling also sends a broader message. Voters have little appetite for another period of political turbulence."
Poll Methodology
The poll surveyed 5,545 adults between 23-30 June 2026, weighted to be representative by demographics and past voting patterns. The results indicate a significant shift in voter sentiment away from Labour in the region.
This polling comes amid broader national trends where Reform UK has been gaining traction, appealing to voters disillusioned with traditional parties. The West Midlands, with its mix of urban and industrial areas, appears particularly susceptible to this shift.
