Aston Villa's Form Slump: Key Issues and Potential Turnaround
Aston Villa's momentum has come to a grinding halt, leaving manager Unai Emery searching for solutions to keep their season on track. February was anticipated as a pivotal month for Villa to solidify their position in the Champions League race, but instead, a series of disappointing results have raised concerns.
Recent Struggles and Missed Opportunities
After a historic victory at Newcastle United, Villa failed to build on that success, suffering a home defeat to 10-man Brentford. This followed a shocking 1-0 loss to Everton at Villa Park. A draw at Bournemouth was marred by an avoidable goal conceded, while further points were dropped against Leeds United. A woeful performance at Wolves resulted in Villa becoming only the second team to lose to them in the league this season.
Had Villa secured more points from the 18 available against opponents like Everton, Brentford, Bournemouth, Brighton, Leeds, and Wolves, they would not only be in a stronger position confidence-wise but also comfortably placed in the top-five chase. Historically, 68 points has been enough for a top-five finish in five of the last six seasons. Villa are currently five wins and a couple of draws away from that total, but with only 10 matches remaining, achieving this may prove challenging.
Atmosphere and Pressure at Villa Park
The atmosphere at Villa Park has shifted noticeably in recent weeks. Following a run of 11 straight victories in all competitions, Villa have won just one of their last six home games. A nervous energy is now palpable, potentially affecting the team's performance, as a supportive crowd can act as a 12th man. Alternatively, the drop in performance levels might be impacting the atmosphere, leading to frustration rather than the traditional Holte End roar.
This change in mood likely stems from multiple factors, including a growing sense of now or never pressure under Emery. Villa fans are acutely aware of the financial constraints facing the club, with Champions League prize money seen as vital for boosting revenue and increasing flexibility in the transfer market. Emery has been the driving force behind Villa's ability to compete consistently, overseeing the fourth-most points accumulated in the league since his arrival over three years ago.
Injury Woes and Missing Key Players
The most obvious reason for Villa's drop in form is the absence of key players. They have been missing their two best midfielders, along with captain and influential talisman John McGinn. Boubacar Kamara is sidelined for the rest of the season, and Villa's win rate without him has dropped by 20 per cent compared to when he was playing.
Youri Tielemans had been one of the league's standout midfielders before his injury against Newcastle, having created the most chances and big chances for Villa last season. In McGinn's absence, Villa have lost not only quality in the final third but also crucial leadership on the pitch.
Emery's Selection Decisions Under Scrutiny
Emery must also take some responsibility for Villa's recent poor run, with certain players given extended runs in the team despite being out of form. Tammy Abraham arguably should have started against Wolves, having scored against Leeds after coming off the bench. The 28-year-old deserved more minutes or even a place in the starting XI.
A spell out of the team might benefit Ollie Watkins in the long term, given his low confidence. There are growing calls for him to be dropped, adding unnecessary pressure, especially when Abraham has scored twice in his last three appearances. Lucas Digne has struggled defensively in recent weeks, notably switching off against Bournemouth to allow an equaliser. Ian Maatsen has shown encouraging progress this season, offering Villa a different dynamic down the left flank, though his defensive game still requires improvement.
Forwards Lacking Confidence and Goal Threat
Villa have scored just two goals from 76 shots (a 2.6 per cent conversion rate) and 6.0 expected goals in their last four matches at Villa Park. Emery's first-choice striker, Watkins, has scored only once in 11 games and found the net in just six of 38 matches across all competitions this season.
Emi Buendia, arguably enjoying his best season for Villa, has scored only twice in 18 matches, though both were crucial opening goals. Jadon Sancho opened his account for Villa against Fenerbahce, but that remains his only goal in 27 appearances. Leon Bailey has scored once in 33 club games for Villa and AS Roma. While Amadou Onana's primary role is not to score, he has found the net only once in 16 appearances. Douglas Luiz has gone more than two years without a goal for Villa, Juventus, or Nottingham Forest, his last strike coming in February 2024.
Why Results Could Change Shortly
The encouraging news is that slumps are nothing new for Villa, and under Emery, they have demonstrated an ability to produce exceptional runs of form. At the start of this season, Villa failed to win any of their first six matches and did not score in their opening five, but then went on to win 17 of their next 19 games.
Last season, Villa won just once in seven matches before responding with eight victories in their next nine. Villa are capable of sustained winning runs, often following barren spells. Last term, the arrivals of Marco Asensio and Marcus Rashford sparked an upturn in results. This season, that spark may need to come from the return of McGinn and Tielemans. The match against Chelsea on Wednesday night could be the final game Villa play without McGinn, while Tielemans is expected to return after the March international break.
