Train passengers in England could see ticket prices rise by up to 4.2% next year, as the government weighs a fare increase formula linked to July's Retail Price Index (RPI). The Office for National Statistics reported on Wednesday that July's RPI stood at 3.2% higher than a year earlier. If the same formula used last year is applied, regulated fares would jump by 4.2%.
Government considers fare rise after freeze
The Labour government, led by Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, froze regulated fares this year, but that freeze is set to end. The Department for Transport has not confirmed how it will determine fare increases in 2027, but last year's 4.6% cap was one percentage point above the July 2024 RPI. Applying that same margin to the current 3.2% RPI would result in a 4.2% increase.
This news comes as a blow to new Prime Minister Andy Burnham, who has been working to ease the cost-of-living burden on households. Burnham has already announced a £2 cap on single bus fares across England, set to take effect from January.
Bus fare cap to drop to £2
The nationwide bus fare cap is currently £3 until the end of March 2027, but some areas already have lower rates for single tickets. The £2 cap reverses an increase implemented by Starmer and Chancellor Rachel Reeves in 2024, and it will remain in place throughout 2027. The same cap was in effect between January 2023 and December 2024, but the previous prime minister and chancellor argued it was not affordable.
Burnham said last month: “Good, affordable transport links are an essential. No one should be priced out of those and left behind. But for too long people have said that cheaper transport isn’t an option. I don’t accept that. I’ve done it before and I will do it again now: a £2 cap on bus fares for millions across the country. Lower fares will help people get to where they need to – giving them breathing space to help with the cost of living.”
Rail fare freeze impact and future decisions
The rail fares freeze has provided significant savings for passengers. A Department for Transport spokesperson said: “We are working to make transport affordable for everyone. The rail fares freeze is giving millions of people breathing space on their travel costs and is expected to save passengers on some of the busiest routes more than £300 a year. No decision has been made on fares after the freeze ends, and we are looking at all options carefully.”
The potential 4.2% increase would apply to regulated fares, which include season tickets and some off-peak tickets. This follows the government's decision to freeze fares this year, a move that has been welcomed by passenger groups but has also raised questions about the long-term sustainability of rail funding. As the government considers its options, passengers are advised to monitor announcements from the Department for Transport regarding future fare adjustments.
