Millions of homes across four English counties are at risk of sinking as the climate crisis intensifies, according to a new study by the British Geological Survey (BGS). The research reveals that the ground beneath properties can shrink and pull down foundations, particularly in London, Essex, Kent, and the area from Oxford up to the Wash on England's east coast.
Understanding the Threat
The BGS study combines geotechnical data on soil volume change potential with projected rainfall and temperature scenarios for the coming century. This analysis identifies regions most susceptible to shrink-swell subsidence, a process where clay soils contract during dry periods and expand when wet, causing ground movement that can damage building foundations.
Anna Harrison, a scientist at the BGS, explained: "Most of the vulnerable areas are in the London region, which is also expected to experience the most significant changes in rainfall and temperature. It is a double whammy." She added that while many homes currently have foundations capable of withstanding moisture changes, future movement is likely to increase. "It is probably going to get worse," Harrison warned.
Signs of Subsidence
Homeowners concerned about subsidence should watch for specific warning signs. Cracks wider than 3 millimetres—approximately the thickness of a £1 coin—that are diagonal, wider at the top than the bottom, and visible both inside and outside the property may indicate a serious issue. Other indicators include doors and windows sticking without an obvious cause, or wallpaper that rips or crinkles in areas not affected by dampness. Subsidence cracks often appear suddenly rather than gradually.
If in doubt, residents are advised to seek professional advice and contact their insurer immediately.
Climate Connection
Harrison emphasised the role of weather patterns: "Dry weather and high temperatures are a major factor in the emergence of shrink-swell subsidence. Looking ahead, these increases in hotter, drier summers and warmer, wetter winters are projected to continue." The findings underscore the growing impact of climate change on housing infrastructure in the UK.
