Birmingham City's Season So Far Graded as Knighthead Weighs Pros and Cons
Birmingham City's Championship season will resume next week with an Easter Weekend double-header against Blackburn and Ipswich. With ten points adrift of the play-offs and comfortably clear of relegation trouble, the final seven games of their first season back in the Championship are unlikely to alter their mid-table standing significantly.
Ambitious Targets Fall Short
The club had aimed to compete for promotion this season, dreaming of emulating Ipswich's back-to-back rise from League One to the Premier League. However, that aspiration has not materialized. A damaging defeat at Derby County in their last outing sparked questions over manager Chris Davies' future, with Knighthead now evaluating the pros and cons of giving him another chance to meet expectations.
In truth, aside from a brief period after a victory at Norwich City in February that left Blues just two points outside the play-offs, they have never appeared as genuine contenders. This makes it difficult to grade their season as anything other than a C-.
Transfer Strategy and Financial Implications
Birmingham City did not spend lavishly like Wrexham did last summer. Many of their twelve signings arrived on loan or as free transfers, with only Kyogo Furuhashi and Marvin Ducksch costing transfer fees. However, it is likely that significant salaries were handed out. The club's wage bill was £33.7 million during their last Championship campaign in 2023/24, though exact figures for this season will not be known until the 2025/26 accounts are released next year.
The club believed they had acquired enough quality in players such as Bright Osayi-Samuel, Demarai Gray, Tommy Doyle, Patrick Roberts, Kyogo, and Ducksch to challenge for promotion. In January, they signed six more players at an expense of around £15 million to address shortcomings. Knighthead did not approve these deals to finish mid-table, which is now working against Davies.
Managerial Performance and Data-Driven Approach
Ordinarily, a manager presiding over a mid-table season in his Championship debut might be viewed favourably, but Birmingham City's very public displays of ambition in pre-season have made this difficult for supporters. To Davies' credit, he has remained true to a philosophy that Knighthead believes will eventually lead Blues out of the Championship.
Back in 2023, a pathway to promotion was outlined to supporters at an Open House event. It was stated that achieving more than 50 percent possession, 400 attempted passes, 80 percent pass completion, and 38 final third entries per 90 minutes would enhance their chances of finishing in the top six. Ranking Blues in these metrics reflects well on Davies' coaching. They have averaged 54.5 percent possession (5th in the league), 435 passes per game (7th), 79.6 percent pass completion (10th), and regularly reach the final third. Additionally, Blues have had the fifth most shots in the Championship and rank fifth in Expected Goals (xG).
Knighthead's Data Focus and Future Decisions
Knighthead are deeply committed to data analysis. Even during Blues' early season struggles, Tom Wagner remained convinced that the underlying numbers were positive. He emphasized their heavy focus on data and analysis, noting that manager Chris Davies embraces and utilizes it effectively. Wagner expressed confidence that this approach would soon put them ahead of the competition.
While there has been nothing to seriously fret over this season, as Blues have avoided a relegation scrap, this outcome does not align with the ambitious vision sold to supporters. The numbers Knighthead believed would lead to a top-six finish have not translated into results, and some signings have underperformed, leading to the brief not being hit. The key question Knighthead will ask during their end-of-season inquest is whether this is Davies' fault.
